Last updated: 19 Jun, 2025
Israel-Iran Conflict: A GCC Balancing Act in a Fragmented Middle East
The direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran has pushed the Middle East into a new phase of volatility, shattering long-standing assumptions about the limits of the two countries’ shadow war. As the two regional powers exchange fire, GCC countries are recalibrating their foreign policies, carefully weighing risks, alliances, and opportunities amid rising uncertainty.
For Saudi Arabia, the conflict comes at a delicate time. With Vision 2030 projects at full speed and a leadership transition quietly underway, Riyadh is prioritizing stability.
While Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman shares Israel’s concerns about Iran’s regional behavior, he condemned the Israeli attack. Saudi officials are quietly pressing for de-escalation, relying on the excellent ties with Washington and their rapprochement with Iran following the Beijing Agreement.
The UAE has emerged as a careful and calculated actor during the crisis. While maintaining strong ties with global powers, Abu Dhabi has emphasized the need to prevent a wider regional war.
The UAE is engaging in quiet diplomacy behind closed doors. It is also working closely with Washington and European partners to monitor developments and assess next steps.
The UAE can leverage its normalized ties with Israel and improved relations with Iran to reduce tensions.
Qatar has leaned into its role as a regional mediator. As host to U.S. forces and a trusted partner to multiple actors, including Iran, Hamas, and the U.S., Doha is uniquely positioned to facilitate indirect negotiations.
Emir Tamim has reportedly intensified communication with Iranian and American officials in recent weeks, seeking to contain the conflict and prevent a collapse of regional diplomacy.
True to its longstanding neutral posture, Oman has remained quiet but active. Muscat has reportedly offered itself as a venue for potential de-escalation talks between Western and Iranian officials. While it does not seek a high-profile role, Oman’s trusted neutrality and established backdoor diplomacy could prove critical in the weeks ahead, especially as diplomatic options narrow.
The Israel-Iran conflict has raised alarms over the security of key maritime routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab El-Mandeb. Both chokepoints are vital to global energy flows and regional trade.
Iranian officials have hinted at the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a form of retaliation, while Houthi forces in Yemen have threatened to disrupt traffic through the Bab El-Mandeb.
The Israel-Iran conflict has become a defining test for the region’s fragile balance. For the GCC, it’s not just about military posture, it’s about political positioning.
As the U.S. attempts to reassert leadership, GCC states are walking a tightrope: upholding old alliances while preserving room to maneuver in a new, fragmented Middle East, especially if escalations lead to the targeting of U.S. assets on GCC soil. The war has made one thing clear, regional diplomacy is no longer about clear sides, but careful calculations.
Start Your Subscription
Subscribe to Intelligence Weekly (Defense) for a weekly roundup of pivotal developments impacting the geopolitical landscape and shaping competitive dynamics within the MENA defense industry.
Looking for personalized access or bespoke engagements?