Referendum on the new Constitution

has already given permission to call the Iraqi people to vote “Yes” in the referendum on the new constitution on 15/7/05. These sources, with Kurdish sources, expect a strong Shiite and Kurdish participation in this referendum, but Sunni Salafi and nationalist sources expect a weak Sunni Arab participation varying from an area to another. Shiite, Kurdish and moderate Sunni sources discount rumours about possible failure of the referendum. Sources close to radical Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr say he left to his followers to decide whether to vote by “Yes” or “No”. According to these sources, Sistani has already advised Sadr to respect the Shiite unanimity. As for the Sunni scholars, Sunni sources say they have received Saudi signals to vote, and the Arab League delegation that is visiting Baghdad will urge them to do the same. Note the constitution draft will pass if more than half of voters say “Yes” and two-thirds of voters in three of Iraq’s 18 provinces do not say “No”.