Ninevah (Mosul) looks to be the key with which the constitution fails or passes. Shiite and Kurdish sources agree that most Shiites and Kurds have voted “Yes” for the new Constitution, but not enough to get it passed. Concurrently, Sunni sources say the Constitution will fail in the Sunni-dominated Al-Anbar and Salahuddin provinces, but this is not enough to defeat it, as the estimates in Ninevah province are still unclear. Two-thirds of “No” votes in three provinces are needed to reject the Constitution. Sources from the Islamic Party, which broke ranks with the Sunni Arab Opposition, claim that its supporters voted for the Constitution in Nenevah, despite threats from the other Sunni groups that opposed it. According to these sources, the results in this province will show the Party is stronger than expected.
Iraq Information Report - October 17, 2005 - 6th Year, № 6/718